Analysis: Arizona Early Election Data Suggests Republican Advantage Over Democrats
Early voter and ballot data mathematically suggests a Republican advantage in this general election...
Just over half of all registered voters have now cast their ballot in Arizona’s 2024 general election. But 48 hours out from this general election how will they lean? Well, statistics show an approximate 1.53% advantage currently for Republicans over Democrats.
According to the State of Arizona’s October ‘Registration Report’, which was compiled and issued by the Secretary of State, 35.77% of all registered voters were Republican and 29.00% were Democrat, leaving approximately 35.24% as 3rd party or independent voters. This means that there is approximately a 6.77% advantage for Republicans over Democrats, before factoring in 3rd party or independent voters.
Comparing these registrations to ballots returned (as per Uplift Data), we find that as of November 2nd, Republicans led Democrats in ballots returned by almost 188K (or about 8.3%).
Assuming party lines, we can statistically infer that Republicans in Arizona now have an approximate 1.53% advantage over Democrats, as they have proportionately cast more ballots. This quantitative inference is mathematically based on the premise that every registered voter will cast a ballot that will generally align with their political party view.
Interestingly, several key populations within Arizona may be the deciding factor.
It is unknown how independents will lean, but ‘ballots returned’ data show that independents are not voting as aggressively as previous years, and with them accounting for 35.24% of the vote, the end result could still shift either way.
This is the most significant factor which makes Arizona a true swing-state. The less independents that turnout to vote will have a positive statistical effect on a Republican outcome, as that population would have a lesser effect on the total vote.
Arizona is also home to a sizable Arab-American population (around 37K), which tends to lean green, supporting both national and state Green Party candidates, whom overwhelmingly reject a Kamala Harris presidency due to her material and financial support of Israeli violence towards Palestinians and Lebanese. Arab-Americans and the Green Party openly declare that conflict a genocide, which will be an influential factor that will likely bleed votes away from Democrats.
Assuming that children statistically comprise 24.2% of this population (as per the U.S. Census), the Arab-American community likely has around 28K registered voters (or around 0.6% of the total vote), enough to directly aid that Republican advantage of 1.53%.
When analyzing this data set, our swing state’s margins for this general election will be very tight, but Republicans seem to have a slight advantage at this time.