Registered Independent Voters in Arizona Grow by 4%; Will Be Deciding Factor in 2024 Election
NU Newsmedia
PHOENIX – A new age of independent voters is emerging in Arizona, and their numbers will have real sway in November’s general election.
Recent data obtained from the Arizona Secretary of State elections services division shows that independent, also known as “no party” voter registration has grown by 4 percent since 2020.
This independent designation, known to the state’s elections office as “other,” is on equal footing with the established Democratic and Republican parties, particularly regarding Arizona’s GOP, where statistically, they are neck and neck in numbers (the GOP having 34.58 percent of registered voters, and Independents now having 34.38 percent). This fact indicates that Arizona’s “swing-vote” is more powerful than ever, which will likely be the deciding factor in this year’s general election.
And one thing is clear: no single party is safe this coming election when so many candidates face such narrow margins for victory. Voter trends in Arizona suggest that overall, voters lean slightly right by a margin of only 4 percent (when analyzing federal election results).
Registered independents have grown in recent years, possibly due to the bitter partisanship and vitriol between the Republican and Democratic parties and their members. And the numbers don’t lie, as they indicate that voters are clearly migrating away from mainstream politics and either going inactive or registering as an independent, or “no party,” voter.
“I became an independent around 2016 because the two choices we had in the election were probably the worst I had ever seen,” said one such voter who is a registered independent, a decorated military veteran and who wished to remain anonymous given the current political climate. “I really felt like that was the start of big money playing huge roles in politics. This year, much like 2016, we have (terrible choices). One will hurt us less than the other, and that is who I will have to vote for.”
“As an independent, I feel more free to vote for who I believe is the best candidate for a political office (sic) and not feel constrained by party lines,” said another decorated military veteran who has voted independently for over 20 years and also wished to remain anonymous. “I believe both parties have a lack of desire to compromise and waste an extreme amount of time focused on partisan politics, … I also don’t like feeling pigeon-holed into voting for a candidate who I may not feel is the right candidate, just because they align to a specific party.”
It is important to note that this data reflects greater attrition from both the Republican and Democratic parties than what is seemingly gained by this ‘other’ (independent) category. The rise in independent voters doesn’t necessarily indicate an exodus from a particular party, but rather identifies an election procedure that requires inactive voters to be removed, indicating that many voters have become uninterested or disenfranchised from state politics.
This procedure seems to be another added reason for why voter registration has dropped across the parties, as approximately 250,000 inactive voters were purged from the state’s registration roll. Also, based on the timeline of the procedure itself (which requires failure to participate in two subsequent federal election cycles), disenfranchisement among voters had to have begun around the 2016 election cycle. Notably, this automatic purging of voters is prohibited by federal law within a 90-day period leading up to an election.
With this clearly noted however, the official data does show that the number of registered Republicans and Democrats has dropped by 6 percent and 12 percent respectively in the same period (libertarians saw a 15.5 percent loss), and further suggests that twice as many Democrats than Republicans are either becoming inactive or switching party affiliation.
We reached out to Arizona’s GOP, Democratic, and Libertarian parties for comment on their reported registered voter losses; no party returned our requests for comment.
Of note, the establishment of the No Labels party in Arizona in early 2023, accounts for approximately 26,000 voters (or 0.63 percent of the total vote) and was drawn from the existing pool of registered voters. This newly formed centrist and bipartisan party aims to unite Americans under the common belief that “American leaders and citizens alike (should) declare their freedom from the anger and divisiveness that (is) ruining our politics and most importantly, our country,” according to the party’s website.
“We seek to restore America's faith that democracy remains the best means to bring out the good in every one of us, thus ensuring a brighter future for generations to come,” according to the No Labels party.
The arrival of the No Labels party is not without contention though. The Democratic Party of Arizona unsuccessfully sued to block state recognition of the party in mid-2023, and the motive could be evident in the released data, as Arizona Democrats have lost 12.1 percent of their registered voters since the 2020 general election, some of whom having likely joined this new party.
So it seems, that Arizona’s political establishment has both a growing and opposing political base and a new party which has the potential to threaten future elections for either Republicans or Democrats, depending on the beliefs and subsequent swing of those voters. One thing is for certain however, those swing votes will undoubtedly be the deciding factor in this November’s general election.