Violent Crime and Homicide Rates in Arizona Trend Downward; Ranks 17th in the Nation for Firearm Deaths

NU Newsmedia

PHOENIX - Violent crime in Arizona is trending downward, decreasing to its lowest rate in two years.

Recent data obtained from the Arizona Department of Public Safety (DPS) shows that violent crime in Arizona is decreasing by 3.82 percent over the past year – and down 12.7 percent from a five-year high in 2022.

And yet according to the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics, the state is currently ranked 17th in the nation for firearm deaths. This ranking accounts for 1,365 total deaths, which is 18.3 deaths per 100,000 people. Despite this mortality rate, homicides are down 8.8 percent since 2023, and down 18.4 percent from the five-year high in 2022.

The data suggests that employed police officers across the state of Arizona are having an impact on violent crime, with crime trending downward and available officers trending upward.

We also found that most homicide victims are white (70.2 percent) between the ages of 25 and 34 and are divided equally among gender. Offenders arrested for violent crimes are predominantly white males between the ages of 25 and 34.

“I’m very glad (there is a decline in violent crime). It’s certainly important. We want safe communities,” says Arizona State Rep. Laura Terech (D-LD4). “We know that the causes of violent crime are things like poverty, access to opportunities, quality education, jobs… Governor Hobbs has added 80,000 jobs in the first two years of her administration, and so when people have opportunities like that we are investing in our communities, we do see that drop.”

According to the Bureau of Labor and Statistics, there were 14,270 police officers in Arizona in 2022, and 20,240 in 2023 (by the end of the year). This sum includes the three occupational categories of First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives, Detectives and Criminal Investigators, and Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers. There are now approximately 6,000 more officers on the force statewide today than there were two years ago at the statistical high, and nearly 7,000 more than five years ago in 2019 (at the beginning of this data set).

In Arizona however, approximately 25 percent of all violent crime in Arizona involves a firearm, and nearly 70 percent of all homicides involve a firearm. Comparatively, nearly 70 percent of veteran suicide deaths(nationwide) occur with a firearm.

“We don’t have anything aimed at gun safety legislation,” says Terech. “I really don’t like using the term gun control because that’s not really what it is. I’m a Second Amendment supporter and I understand that folks choose to have firearms for a wide variety of reasons; I wouldn’t want to infringe on that. But there are things that we can and should do to ensure (responsible ownership). … I would love to see us pass policy that we know will keep people safe, that’s worked in other states.”

Terech, who has championed anti-gun violence legislation in the past, looks at the situation pragmatically. “I wanted to work on gun safety legislation, or safe schools from gun violence, and so I researched the states that have the lowest number of school shootings relative to population, and then I looked at what they had done. And I found a Louisiana law… with bipartisan support, that exempts school blueprints and floorplans from public records requests. So there is a wide variety of options that we have available to us.”

Those options also included closing loopholes for gun purchases and stricter background checks.

A higher rate of female victims could also suggest higher rates of domestic violence, although that hypothesis could not be definitively confirmed from the available data.

“It’s simply about keeping people safe and keeping guns out of the hands of criminals,” says Terech. “We know from the statistics that a huge number of women who are killed in domestic violence incidents are killed by a firearm, and if there is a prior conviction there or there is an order of protection in place, then that’s not an individual who needs to have a gun at this moment in their life. And domestic violence calls are also some of the most dangerous calls for our law enforcement to go on, and I want to make sure they are safe as well.”

According to an independent for-profit research group called World Population Review, Arizona is purportedly ranked the 5th-highest for domestic violence in the United States, with some 43 percent of women reporting some level of intimate partner violence in their relationship.

While the data indicates downward trends in overall violence, further investigation into the underlying factors driving these changes is essential.

Curiously, the neighboring states of New Mexico and California are ranked 3rd and 43rd respectively for firearm mortality (New Mexico being a high rate, and California being a low rate, despite social narratives otherwise).

Conservative proponents of the Second Amendment have varied views on the solutions for gun violence. They also believe in holding criminals responsible for their actions, but view the idea of gun control as a non-starter when it comes to gun violence legislation.

We asked a firm Second Amendment advocate, Rep. Quang Nguyen (R-LD1): How do we realistically address gun violence and violent crime in Arizona without violating the Second Amendment?

“The first firearms in existence can be dated back to the 13th century. I assure you that violent crimes involving firearms existed before the ratification of the 2nd Amendment (in 1791),” says Nguyen. “The 2nd Amendment was never a part of the solution in reducing crimes then, so why now? Let’s concentrate on criminalizing criminals rather than infringing on our rights to keep and bear arms.”

“You don’t take spoons away from thin people to keep heavy people from eating,” adds Nguyen. “I survived and lived through a communist war. My family members were killed and imprisoned,” he explains, referring to the importance of the right to bear arms.

This is an important perspective to recognize, as it rationalizes the need for the Second Amendment not for the purpose of countering crime, but rather a tool to defend the people from a tyrannical government; an experience that is unique to Nguyen’s personal life experience of living under an oppressive Communist regime.

“With a tremendous amount of respect for my colleagues, I would ask them what they are willing to compromise with us on. This is just about keeping our community safe,” explains Terech. “There is this narrative out there that people want to take your guns away. We’ve really moved past that. I will say I don’t believe in citizens owning military grade assault weapons, we’ve just seen those used to such deadly force, but I think there are really reasonable policies that the majority of Arizonans and the majority of Americans support. We see support for closing loopholes or background checks upward of 75-80 percent. When something is that broadly supported by the electorate, it’s disheartening that we are not able to move forward with things like that.”

Artificial Intelligence was used in part to develop research and analysis for this article.